2011 NH Forecast - Deep In Thought

I often get caught deep in thought. When I am in deep thought, I squint, and that’s how you know I’m ‘thinkin’. My eyesight is perfectly fine if I wear glasses, but somehow squinting helps me think better. From my perspective, there was a whole lot of squinting going on during January’s 2011 NH Industry Forecast held at SERESC in Bedford, NH. Squinting, squinting and more squinting. I must have looked like I was in a lot of pain!

Many areas of industry presented their projections for 2011. Though it wasn’t a whole lot different than 2010, they were little more hopeful. My notes – for sharing purposes only:

HEALTH: New Hampshire is fortunate to have one of the highest rates of health insurance in t the nation. . This is due in part because we are highly educated. Education= Creates Healthy/Active= Consumers who make demands to retain their good health, therefore we ask for/demand those additional tests to maintain our excellent health. This, in turn, drives up our rates. The presenter was unable to give any concrete numbers for increased percentages, because National Health Care Reform (HCR) is about to ‘transform everything’. She was very sure that HCR will be modified but it will not go away and every employer will be mandated to supply affordable health insurance. Squint.

TECHNOLOGY: Stay with me: Blah, blah, blah, 4G, newer, faster, mobile, wireless. IPAD tablets will drive the 4G movement. Blah, blah, blah, 1Mbps to 100 Mbps. One would think I wasn’t present during this presentation, but I WAS and I still couldn’t make heads or tails out of this speaker’s presentation. My conclusion was that Apple is just going to drive this whole industry – so I stopped listening. I wished he would have ‘dummied-down’ for us, well maybe just for me. SQUINT!

ENERGY & UTILITIES: There is such a state of uncertainty with utilities and energy. My understanding is that we need ‘alternatives’ to oil, however, in order to proceed with alternative energy sources, there must be investors – and they’re not investing, due to the economy. Regulatory issues w/alternatives are not there yet and can’t be because there is not enough information. Last words from this man’s lips were, “we will not see a recovery in this sector until 2015”. No squinting - my eyes were WIDE open! (I do that when in shock.)

REAL ESTATE: NH is stabilizing in regards to office and industry leasing. There is actually a slight up-tick in leasing. Though purchases remain flat, leasing is on its way up. Rates per square foot are a steal! If you are small manufacturer and want to expand a bit, do it now and lock into rates that are, well … stolen! Concord’s unoccupied buildings are 90% leased. Cisco, Salem had been vacant for 10 years, just sold! Exit 1 – Tech Park has the lowest vacancy rate ever! Builders in NH do not build unless they have a committed 80-90% pre-occupancy rate. No squinting, just a wink of happiness.

HIGHER EDUCATION: NH is one of the most educated states in the union. We are a community of life-long-learners. Over the past four years rates for public colleges have surged 10% and private colleges 13%. Community colleges are swamped. As you would expect, the trend driving community college’s enrollment is cost, state support and increased competition regarding curriculum. No squinting here, I just put on my glasses – because they makes me look ‘smarter’.

BANKING: The Consumer Protection Act has made an impact on the banking community. New regulatory measures mean that banks have more work to do in order to meet the criteria, therefore, rates are lower, but fees are higher. Monies for small business loans are there, but not much as what’s needed. The bank has always been a lagging indicator to the economy. Squint, squint and more squint. That’s why they won’t approve my small business loan?!

Again, these are just my notes. I am sure if you asked the respective speakers their thoughts on what I’ve shared with you - they’d probably squint, too!